Weekend Slate: Ravens open up the AFC North, Commies all but clinch wild card, Mayo still looks lost at game management

Texans recap from Saturday is here. Let’s get into it. There will be no MNF recap this week on behalf of my sanity (worked Saturday, will work Wednesday on Texans stuff) and the Christmas holiday.

Big screens

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Steelers 17 at Ravens 34

A fairly solid and tight game through three quarters, with the Steelers tying the game at one point thanks to some Calvin Austin heroics and a touchdown catch by Cordarrelle Patterson. Derrick Henry dominated the proceedings for a Ravens team that finally understood to run the ball (and some key defensive injuries for the Steelers helped), and then this game entered the win percentage whiplash zone at the start of the fourth quarter.

The Steelers, for once, decided to go on fourth down down seven. Russell Wilson had Austin, but the ball hung a little too high for it to be anything but a jump ball in the end for Kyle Hamilton.

The Ravens got the ball, had a 44-yard run by Henry that immediately made the game look academic, then Minkah Fitzpatrick sniped a Lamar Jackson pass on what looked like a stopped route by Rashod Bateman. Everyone was angry. Zay Flowers was open, jumping in vain, and FOX ran a shot of Todd Monken where you could make out “throw it to him!”

And then … well, then Wilson threw a pick-six on the first pass afterwards to Marlon Humphrey and ended the competitive portion of the game.

There’s no shame in this for the Steelers, a split with a Ravens team that has empirically overperformed compared to its record is just fine. The only real casualty is that they’ve put the division up for grabs. Pittsburgh plays Kansas City in a game the Chiefs would surely love to have to wrap up homefield on Christmas, while Baltimore plays Houston. Advantage: Baltimore. The Ravens also finish with the Browns while the Steelers snag a Bengals squad that may have something to play for. Even though Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker right now, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Baltimore finish as AFC North champions.

Commanders 36 at Eagles 33

Staked to a 14-0 lead, the Eagles lost Jalen Hurts to a concussion midway through their second touchdown drive — very weird to see a successful call from the independent neurologist in a year where I’ve seen Josh Allen obviously play through being concussed — they then found a 68-yard touchdown run from Saquon Barkley where he was essentially untouched:

Philadelphia wouldn’t score another touchdown all day. Barkley, who at the end of the first quarter had 7/109/2, finished the game at 29/150/2. That’s three quarters of play with 22 carries for 41 yards. The thing is (and really has always been): running backs do matter, but they only matter to the extent that you can create favorable situations for their talent to shine in. And you saw how tenuous that ladder can look the second Hurts went down. The Eagles didn’t exactly play bad offense with Pickett, though they squandered a red-zone opportunity on a weird Barkley wildcat fake throw. Pickett connected with A.J. Brown often, and hit DeVonta Smith on a play that should have ended the game as an Eagles win but not for Smith absolutely butchering it:

Still, large swaths of successful production in this game came because Brown drew defensive pass interferences against Marshon Lattimore three times in the second half before Lattimore retreated to the blue injury tent with a hamstring injury that we hope is not season-ending.

The Commanders never exactly looked like a good passing offense, which is definitely a funny thing to say about a team that scored five touchdowns in the air. In fact, a big reason they came back was because their initial go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter came on a play where the Eagles were going to get called for 12 men on the field, then Darius Slay ran off to try to beat the penalty, leaving Olamide Zaccheaus wide open:

Jayden Daniels, though, looked great. He had two huge scrambles on fourth downs to keep touchdown drives alive. It’s just that when your best non-Terry McLaurin receivers are Zaccheaus and (rubbing eyes in amazement) Jamison Crowder, you’re not going to win many downs early. But they won the key one early when All-Pro candidate Zack Baun didn’t carry Crowder:

The Commanders all but clinched an NFC Wild Card spot with the win. The Seahawks and Falcons are two games behind with two to play. (Though the Falcons do play the Commanders next week in what is suddenly kind of a fun game now that Kirk Cousins isn’t involved.) The Eagles, well, they’re probably not losing the No. 2 seed but it would take a lot for them to wind up with the No. 1 seed now. They can still technically give the NFC East to the Commanders but it would take an absolutely perfect scenario (and the Eagles would have to lose to the Giants somehow.)

Patriots 21 at Bills 24

Staked to a 14-0 lead, the Patriots turned the ball over three times in the second half, one of them a fumble-six on a backwards pass:

Worse, they looked weirdly uninterested in actually winning the game. They did successfully run a fake punt in the second quarter from their own 23, but after that, they punted on fourth-and-1 at the Buffalo 34. Down 10 in the fourth after the turnover spree, they punted on fourth-and-5 at the New England 46. Two Antonio Gibson carries on your final offensive drive, down 10 with under four minutes to go? Really? Drake Maye spent the entirety of the last couple of drives backpedaling as Buffalo’s defense teed off on their protections and got free rushers often. I continue to be unimpressed with Jerod Mayo’s game management chops. Sorry, sorry, Patriots fans. Look, your rookie quarterback made some good throws:

The Bills didn’t really do anything great in this game — they were inches from a Josh Allen deep ball a few times, and he gave the ball away downfield twice. They ran the ball as well as they usually do, but got gashed on the ground while dealing with their defensive injuries. Ultimately the Bills had enough to overcome the bad start, and that’s the sign of a good team and also the sign of a team that got a fumble-six in a game with six touchdowns.

This win all but locks Buffalo into the No. 2 seed, up two games on Baltimore and Pittsburgh with two to play against the Dolphins and Patriots (again).

Buccaneers 24 at Cowboys 26

Tampa falls back out of the playoffs after a well-mixed Mike McCarthy start was complemented by a pass rush that just destroyed Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers. The screen game was successful for Tampa Bay, but every time Baker pushed the ball downfield, it felt like Dallas’ secondary was up for the challenge. Jalen McMillan met Jourdan Lewis downfield on what would have been a huge catch-up play for the Bucs and conclusively lost on the one turnover of the game:

Even the plays where Dallas actually gave up the completion, they challenged hard. Rakim Jarrett, for instance, took the worst of this:

This was a physical, fun, football game. And I didn’t even clip the Jake Ferguson thing yet. Should I do it? Should I clip Vita Vea in coverage? Ah, what the hell:

Then we had the play that led to the kneelouts, where Mayfield played out of his mind to try to keep the game alive and Rachaad White just had no interest in the game continuing as DaRon Bland got him to fumble the ball away for the win:

That’s almost a .500 record for the fighting McCarthys, they believe in this coach, folks! Well, as much as you can believe in someone who doesn’t have a contract for next year and is a lame duck, anyway. (I wouldn’t keep him, I wrote about that last week.) Tampa’s back seven is a problem when they can’t generate pass rush via exotic looks and, weirdly, the banged up Cowboys line had no problems protecting against that.

Brandon Aubrey was 4/4, including a 58-yarder, and has so much natural power that he makes it look like he only needs to guide in anything below 55 yards. My mind thinks “ah, the next Justin Tucker is here.” Then I look at him more deeply and realize he’s already 29. Enjoy the kicker peak years, Dallas!

Small screens

Vikings 27 at Seahawks 24

If you didn’t happen to get this game — it me — you would be surprised by how well the defenses played. Both quarterbacks were throwing dots all over the field. To give you a Geno Smith example:

And then a Darnold example, the more famous of the two:

It’s funny how a good season by a quarterback nobody thinks is capable of having a good season can melt brains. I swear I’ve been seeing “Sam Darnold will melt down when it matters most” for months now, and those people may yet still be proven right. But with the game on the line, against what I’d call an objectively good defense, Darnold drove them down the field and got the game-winning touchdown pass.

The Seahawks played better overall, with 6.0 yards per play to 4.8, but they lost this game because a) they committed 11 penalties to Minnesota’s seven, and b) they had the quarterback who was taking more splash losses. Smith was picked twice (only once did it actually matter), and took three sacks, including an enormous one on what could have been the game-tying drive that put the Seahawks in a second-and-16 they couldn’t escape. Jason Myers came up about five yards short on a 60-yard attempt to tie it. The math is harsh sometimes.

Seattle almost assuredly needs the Rams to lose next week to stay alive for the NFC West, and the Commanders win makes it hard for them to take the No. 7 seed. The Vikings keep the heat on Detroit.

Rams 19 at Jets 9

And they need the Rams to lose because the Rams “took care of business” against the Jets, if that’s what you can call this. The Jets failed a fourth-and-short run in the second quarter with a 6-0 lead that gave the Rams a tying score. (Both missed extra points.) In the third quarter they failed a fourth-and-4 throw to Davante Adams in the red zone to keep three more points off the board in what would ultimately be their last real chance to score. Then Aaron Rodgers got strip-sacked in his own territory on New York’s first drive of the fourth quarter, giving the ball to the Rams for the game’s only touchdown.

The Rams didn’t necessarily make much hay against the Jets defense, which makes it two games in a row that Matt Stafford has been held under 200 yards passing. But the defense has stepped up at the right time, and the combo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are providing a successful running game if not an explosive one.

It wouldn’t be the Jets if they didn’t fumble one last chance to win, right? So they fumbled a punt away with 1:44 left, down 10, to take care of that last gasp.

I will miss this team. I fear it will be the last time we get to laugh at Aaron Rodgers before he gets to be a media personality and thrives on our attention.

Cardinals 30 at Panthers 36 (OT)

Somehow neither of these teams understood that Kyler Murray and Bryce Young could run. The Cardinals and Panthers were already running just fine either way — Chuba Hubbard averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, and James Conner 7.8 — but the two quarterbacks combined for 13 carries for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Maybe mix in a spy, Ejiro and Nick?

A Conner fumble deep in Arizona territory anchored the Cardinals to a 20-3 deficit. It is low-key kind of amazing that Arizona got this game to overtime. Bryce Young continued to mix in some extremely pretty throws. His touchdown throw to David Moore was immaculate:

Arizona stopped being able to run when Conner left with an injury, and the Panthers were one third-down completion from icing the game at 30-27 after a disastrous Kyler Murray pick. Chad Ryland knocked in a 57-yarder to send it to overtime after a couple of successful Murray scrambles. The Cardinals even stuffed the Panthers’ first drive, and had the balls to go for it on fourth-and-2 in their own territory in overtime and succeed. But Murray took a huge sack on third down, and the Panthers broke some big runs with Chuba Hubbard on the final drive to make the field-goal positioning game pointless.

Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention with the loss. I’d suggest, I dunno, paying some defensive players next year guys.

Giants 7 at Falcons 34

The Falcons finally replaced Kirk Cousins earlier this week, but it didn’t actually matter in this game because the Giants are that bad. 14 of Atlanta’s points came off Drew Lock turnovers returned for touchdowns. That said, I enjoyed watching Michael Penix Jr. and I think it is clearly the right move. You just don’t see the zip that Penix Jr. had on any of Cousins’ balls this year:

Cousins had become purely an anticipation thrower, and one who was so immobile he couldn’t get out of the pocket and open any of that part of the offense up. This version of the Falcons is much more interesting to me as a playoff team even if I do think Penix Jr. will have rookie moments at inopportune times.

The Giants? There are only two games left.

Lions 34 at Bears 17

I didn’t exactly figure the Lions would struggle with the Bears, but they were up 20-0 before the Bears could blink. And in today’s Disrespectful Ben Johnson Alert, he was so bored with Chicago that he faked a fumble on a play-action pass:

I swear the Scott Turner/Norv Turner and Thomas Johnson interim offenses are the exact same offense: pound the hell out of the flats, try to run the ball, and forget that the middle of the field exists until the game is mathematically over. After watching Caleb Williams last game — the one where they were absolutely terrible — the fact that Detroit’s defense gave up 334/2 to Williams over the air is a bit of a warning sign that they’re out of gas on that side of the ball. (To be clear, Williams did have some very nice downfield throws in this game when they finally got there.)

It’s never a good sign when all the coach can say about the defensive players is that they exist.

Smallest screens

49ers 17 at Dolphins 29

Happy for Deebo Samuel, it’s been a tough year, but I’m worried about Tony Romo.

Driving down 22-17, Brock Purdy threw a pick over the middle of the field with 1:56 left. DeVon Achane had a pile-on touchdown from the 50. The Dolphins keep their slim playoff hopes alive, while the 49ers are now officially eliminated.

Browns 6 at Bengals 24

The Bengals kept their slim playoff homes alive by thoroughly dominating this game. Cleveland’s pass rush was able to get to Joe Burrow on enough key plays to make the score look acceptable — including Myles Garrett’s 100th career sack — and the only reason they cracked 24 points was a late offsides-influenced deep shot to Ja’Marr Chase that either greatly pleased or greatly pissed you off in fantasy football.

But the story of this game was simply: Dorian Thompson-Robinson isn’t an NFL quarterback. I get that they’re going nowhere, and I get that if Thompson-Robinson hit that all of the sudden they’re in a much better position.

Zero completions over 15 yards. A lot of his completions looked like miracles. He was laboring and playing through an injury that had Bailey Zappe in at one point. You scored one touchdown (granted you had a goal-line fumble) against arguably the worst defense in the NFL this year and absolutely the

Titans 30 at Colts 38

Basketball is a game of runs. Sorry, forgot where I was writing for a second. Football is a game of runs. The Titans went up 7-0 on a long Calvin Ridley strike, picked off Anthony Richardson in zone while driving, and had a field-goal attempt to go up 10-0 and had Braden Narveson come up short. Then it was Jonathan Taylor’s turn:

38 points later, the Colts were finally done. But the Titans were just getting started, ending the game on their own 23-point run and getting the Colts to successfully put their starters back in after an early pull. No team had scored 38 points with a quarterback attempting less than 11 passes since the 1993 Patriots. I don’t think Anthony Richardson looked woeful, but I think it’s fair to call this a wasted year as far as any kind of development. At least he finally hit Adonai Mitchell on a downfield pass!

Jaguars 14 at Raiders 19

In a move that creates some distance for the Giants at the top of the draft, the Raiders succumbed to the jaws of victory mostly on account of this miracle play:

Even the referee didn’t want to see it, but it happened. That set up the go-ahead touchdown for the Raiders. Hey, did you want to see how open someone has to be deep for Mac Jones to successfully hit a touchdown pass? It’s this wide open:

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