TNF: Not kicking themselves

For three quarters and change, the only thing notable about the Philadelphia Eagles/Washington Commanders matchup was that Jake Elliott sent three different kicks wide and made the Eagles — who outgained the Commies on the day 6.2 yards per play to 4.2 — look like dopes.

Jayden Daniels barely even attempted a downfield pass until the Commanders trailed. Five attempts over 10 air yards and one attempt over 20 air yards as of nine minutes left in the game. The Commanders couldn’t find one yard from second-and-1 on the Philly 25, down two, on three plays. Jalen Carter blew up the second-down play, then on the fourth-down-go he gets instant penetration to send Daniels outside on a busted play run where he got popped short of the sticks.

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Very weird to have a fourth-down go where the bots actually didn’t agree. I want to give some benefit of the doubt for Dan Quinn there. Maybe he didn’t trust Zane Gonzalez all that much. Maybe he thought that getting that go was a knockout punch. He himself called it a “bold call.” After the game he said this: “It wasn't executed well. Here's what happened: Cosmi pulled to his left but Coleman was pulling to his right as were Biadasz and Wylie. Jalen Carter penetrated thru Cosmi's gap and that forced Daniels to go much wider.”

But uh, it backfired in his face immediately after Grant Calcaterra fell on an embarrassing downfield fumble by Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley did an instant knockout for a nine-point lead. Daniels threw a pick on the first play of theensuing drive and this game was done.

Philadelphia’s defense is cruising, beating up the weak (Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, whatever the Cowboys are doing right now) and the strong (uber-efficient Daniels, a Bengals outfit that has scored 25 or more points in six of 10 games) over that timespan. They were sixth in weighted defensive DVOA before the game, and that will likely only come down. Both of their young corners, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, have come along nicely. Mitchell flat-out erased Terry McLaurin if you believe in this graphic:

The game also seizes the Eagles control of the NFC East division race, putting them two losses ahead of the Commanders and giving them half-a-step towards a head-to-head tiebreak.

All is not lost for the Commies, who have two games left against the Cowboys, one each against the Titans and Saints, then home games against the Eagles and Falcons. Assumedly they’ll get Marshon Lattimore back from his hamstring injury at some point to help bolster the defense. But this makes it four games in a row where the passing offense hasn’t exactly been impressive. I’m wondering if we’re beginning to see some diminishing returns on the Kliff Kingsbury era. I also wanted to screenshot this series of posts (staying clear of whether we should call them skeets or not) from Jourdan Rodrigue because I found them interesting:

I’m not saying that the end result here is “not wise,” because if the Commanders happen to get two yards in three plays this game remains close and may even tilt dramatically in their favor. But it’s very hard for me to accept “you know you won’t explosively score in pass” as an outcome that you want to wholeheartedly accept.

Anyway, kind of a dull game for three quarters, turned on a dime to be interesting in the fourth for about five minutes, then it was over.

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