The Winter of Stroud's Content

When I was a dipshit college student, there was no Twitter, Facebook was really new, and the law of the land for aspiring writers was: Write something, send it to some bigger sites, and hope they like it enough to post it in their links posts. You, too, could be one of the dipshit opinions I groaned at if you caught the attention of the correct big name writer at the correct time.

Well, guess not that much has changed.

Anyway, my dipshit college blog with my dipshit friends was called Future Considerations. And I can vividly remember sending Deadspin a piece during the 2006 NLCS that was entitled something like “David Wright could be the new Derek Jeter.” (I would dig up links to both, but neither Deadspin nor the post deserve the hits.) With the benefit of hindsight, you can see how painful that is to bring up today. Will Leitch, a Cardinals fan, was happy to post it. Happy to feed that. And Wright instead became a Mets version of Jeter: I watched a player I loved never make the playoffs again until 2015, when he was a shell of himself. He retired because of spinal stenosis.

I always think about this piece before I make big sweeping proclamations about what is happening, particularly when they cast my favorite teams in a positive light. I never think about any of the several other very good pieces Leitch linked. Just that one. 

So the framing I use here is more tepid, intentionally so. But: These next 10 weeks are an enormous opportunity for C.J. Stroud. For good. Or possibly for bad. 

I shudder to type the words “it could happen” knowing what they mean and how stupid they feel, particularly in service of a team that has spent 25 years at the kid’s table. Nevertheless, I would be remiss to not point out that the three teams that the Texans were clearly behind last year in the AFC are all currently in disarray. The Bills have no run defense, no deep passing game, and lost to Davis Mills. Lamar Jackson looks like the non-union equivalent version of himself since coming back from his hamstring injury. The Chiefs have somehow found a formula to lose every close game this season that wasn’t against the Colts, and if you watched that game, you know damn well that they tried to lose it too. 

The AFC’s new blood, the three top seeds, are led by Daniel Jones with a fibula fracture, Bo Nix, and (finally someone scary) Drake Maye throwing to almost nobody of note. Which isn't to say that they aren't good teams, but the fear factor about them isn't quite the same.

Stroud has not had a terrific season to date, but the San Francisco game before he got hurt was his best. He was looking good early against the Broncos. None of that was enough to drag the Texans offense out of the forcefield that surrounds them the second they hit the red zone, but it was trending in a positive direction. Combine that Stroud with how the current Texans defense is and … I don’t want to say what it is. But it could happen. 

The other factor that I think is interesting here, though, is what is at stake. Stroud has had two major concussions in three years. Will Anderson started getting extension talk this weekend. And while Stroud can’t generate much buzz in concussion protocol, I found this juxtaposition from DeMeco Ryans about Stroud and Jalen Pitre (also missed the last three games with a concussion) very revealing:

Does it sound like one of those guys is much more important to the team than the other this year? Sure does. Is that guy the one you expected? Maybe not! I’m not clutching this one close to my heart or anything — it is a defensive coach talking about His Guy — but it did feel a little revelatory. 

I don’t think Stroud is going to be struggling for money any time soon. But I do think extension talks are not as open-and-shut if he and the Texans instead falter down the stretch with everything on the table for them. If Nick Caserio truly does think Davis Mills is one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL (citation below) and Stroud’s Winning Resume takes on water and invites what I’ll call the eau de Trevor Lawrence into the picture, well… I don’t know that a deal isn’t getting done, but perhaps it is a tougher negotiation than expected. 

A lot is at stake for all Texans shareholders, as it always was going to be, this year. But Ryans is coming out of this smelling like roses with how well this defense is running. I think there are plenty of more convenient people to blame — a whole line of them in fact — for offensive struggles. But if Stroud doesn’t look like 2023 Stroud here, it’s going to be tough to imagine a scenario like this — every AFC team with a superhero QB struggling to be better than the Texans — unfurling again. 

Or, I dunno, maybe it just happens. It certainly feels like the best chance they’ve had at it for a long time, anyway. Maybe Stroud just checks that box, and we’re along the happy ride again like it’s 2023 and the expectations that were exceeded forgive all perceived issues with how, say, the offensive coordinator is unable to understand how to call a red zone play.

The only thing is: Even if I believed that would happen, I would never, ever fucking predict it.