The Raiders again bet big on coaching to dig them out of their AFC West-sized hole

It is not often that I have praised the Las Vegas Raiders over the past 10 years. They had an unfortunate peak of the Derek Carr Era that coincided with him getting hurt right before the playoffs, sending a 12-4 team spiraling out in the first round in 2016. Connor Cook’s only career start came in that playoff game at Texans O’Clock, he completed 18-of-45 passes for 161 yards and was picked three times.

From there they went into misguided regime change after misguided regime change. Jon Gruden (but his e-mails), Josh McDaniels, and most recently, letting Antonio Pierce have the job for a year because they were still paying Gruden and McDaniels.

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So the issue with the Raiders finding the right coach has never been the money, but the target. McDaniels rehabbed his image in New England, but the Denver years were telling you right to your face how that would go. Gruden won the Super Bowl in his first year in Tampa Bay and then spent six more seasons there that resulted in two playoff one-and-dones and a 38-42 record. Spider Y 2 Banana eventually was, if not solved, mitigated from being a major problem for defenses. I wouldn’t go as far as to say I hated those two signings, but both coaches got huge contracts and I think would both be better characterized as gambles.

I don’t love that Pete Carroll is 73 (he doesn’t either, he actually said in the presser that he didn’t like waring that number “on his back’) but you can’t argue with his results. The Seahawks went 137-89 under Carroll, appeared in two Super Bowls, and continued to punch above their roster talent even after the Legion of Boom became Bobby Wagner and some guys. He never had a losing record with the Patriots — in fact, he has never won fewer than six games in any NFL season. USC has never fully replaced him. You never know what you’re getting into health-wise when you’re as old as Carroll is, but he seemed as spry and exuberant as ever in 2022 and he was much more successful in his recent years than Bill Belichick was at the end of the Patriots dynasty.

Hiring Carroll reminds me a lot of the Chargers bringing in Jim Harbaugh to be the adult in the room, the only difference is that the Chargers had a talented quarterback. The Raiders have Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby, of course, and the makings of a functional offensive line. They paid Christian Wilkins a lot of money. Tyree Wilson showed some good things down the stretch. They have $92 million in cap space, which is good, because this is where they start at the two positions that touch the ball the most:

The problem with the AFC West is that somebody is going to have to lose these games. Sean Payton, Andy Reid, and Harbaugh are the other three coaches with Carroll. It will very much be up to Carroll to build a program — something he has excelled at — and he is going to be a massive underdog in every game in the division for a minute just for the talent on the roster.

But it’s hard to look at where the Raiders are going and be upset. Maybe Chip Kelly shouldn’t make — wait, Chip Kelly makes $6 million a year? Got to love NIL — but there is no coaching salary cap. John Spytek has been a part of a successful culture in Tampa Bay and I think is up to the task of upgrading the roster. Patrick Graham signed on as defensive coordinator again after having to play Chopped contestant for the third straight season with less-than-stellar talent.

What catches my eye most, though, is the cap space. Maybe you don’t think Sam Darnold is a franchise quarterback and you believe Kevin O’Connell pulled something incredible out of him. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler has reported Darnold will get a deal in the Baker Mayfield range for most of the last month and change. If the Raiders can pay Darnold and work towards him being 90 percent of who he was in 2024, you can start to see the makings of a functional offense here. And that doesn’t feel like the only card at quarterback the Raiders hold this offseason with that cap space.

Good coaching and good quarterback play have been the fulcrum that swings worst-to-first teams like the Texans and Commanders. I don’t think good quarterback play is easy to find, but I think Kelly as an offensive coordinator could be novel, I trust Carroll a lot. If the Raiders do find someone undervalued or interesting, I could see a quick improvement.

Now worst-to-first teams also don’t play in the same division as Patrick Mahomes. They just don’t. Let’s be realistic about it. But the Raiders have had two seasons with winning records since 2002, hell, they have had one season since 2017 with a positive point differential and that differential was “1.”

I’m not talking about the playoffs, but I think it’s possible they could stumble around near .500 and make every AFC West game a butt-clincher. I think this is as optimistic as I’ve felt about the direction of that team since 2015, when Carr graduated from checkdown offense to Pro Bowler and — you won’t believe this happened if you’re a zoomer — was third in MVP voting in 2016. There was, to use Ringer parlance, a Derek Carr Moment. And even that was kind of obscured by the fact that Jack Del Rio was more well-known for wearing jackets than coaching.

Del Rio, above, looking at the stock market this morning.

It’s a little wild to spend a free column on “wait, the Raiders might be doing a good thing or two?” so I’m sorry if that feels like a disappointment to you. But you need to understand that this team has been so bad for so long that the idea that they might even eventually get good creates cognitive dissonance for me. This team started Terrelle Pryor at quarterback once! They drafted JaMarcus Russell! Save for the brief Gruden 1/Callahan peak, they have been consistent losers for the entirety of my adult life.

Pete Carroll built two incredible programs over the last 25 years. Everything is running against him this time: He’s older, the team is in a huge talent deficit, and every other coach in this division is great too.

If he finds a way to save this one, he should be instantly inducted into the Hall of Fame. (He was getting in anyway, but, you know, just waive the waiting period.)

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