Retaining Nick Caley: No other targets or no other ambition?

I know, I know, you all want the next Stroud post. Sorry, this is a little more pressing to me. (And it kind of ties in to Stroud anyway.)

The Texans went from minus-12.4% offensive DVOA (26th) in 2024 to minus-2.4% DVOA (19th) in 2025. In weighted offensive DVOA – which considers the more recent games more strongly towards the end of the season – the Texans made it all the way up to minus-1.2% DVOA.

As much as I dunked on Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley multiple times in the first two months of the season, I think I'd be lying if I said there was no growth in the final games of the year. The problem is that said growth was very conditional. They scored 40 points against the Cardinals – Jonathan Gannon got fired. They scored 38 points against the Colts in the finale, but Stroud only played two quarters of that game and defensive scores were involved. The best defense they played down the stretch was against the Chargers, and while Stroud threw two long touchdowns in that game, the Texans managed just 201 total yards after those two drives, and six points.

That's why the most jarring thing to me about the end of season pressers wasn't the assertion that Caley would likely come back – teams that win 12 games don't tend to fire people even on the problematic side of the ball – it was this clip from Nick Caserio's presser:

God, the smug Nico Collins reference really makes it.

You know what I think is a concern? Having your running backs combine for 31 rushing yards on 18 carries in a must-win playoff game. And doing it because your interior line looks hapless against stunts.

I'm well aware that the quarterback was who gave the game away – don't worry, we will get there next week – but one reason the quarterback gets there is because Collins is not playing, Dalton Schultz leaves early, and your lack of a run game leaves you throwing 13 targets to Xavier Hutchinson in a playoff game. Was there ever any point in this game where the Texans called a run play that showed they were capable of adjusting? No. It's the goddamn Doctor Manhattan meme only it's me watching the Texans not adjust to the Patriots finding their weakness in 2013, and now in 2026.

The problem the Texans have is a problem of ambition. If SWARM mentality is what makes the Houston defense among the best in the NFL, and that's all they need, that's awesome. I bow to the power of having three legitimately awesome cornerbacks at their positions and the best two-man EDGE team in existence, among other personnel advantages. This offense doesn't have anything near the equivalent of that. It has Collins, one of the five best receivers in the NFL. It has Stroud, who I now have to hesitate before I type anything positive about because I know it will lead to backlash. And it has a bunch of players who are either still growing into who they are, were hurt last year, or have career histories closer to "steady" than difference-maker.

Where I think Caserio and Ryans get bailed out here is: Mike McDaniel was the last coach I truly thought was an elevator on the offensive side of the ball and he signed on to the Chargers almost as soon as Houston's season was over. They're late to the party in coaching free agency. Todd Monken would be an upgrade (my opinion), but seems locked in to joining the Giants. I guess you could pitch me that Brian Daboll, Arthur Smith, Zac Robinson (typed before he signed on with the Buccaneers) or Joe Brady (assuming he's not welcome back in Buffalo) would be an upgrade. I'm not exactly pounding the table for them. Kliff Kingsbury would be a philosophical clash the organization might never recover from. It's easy to point to plenty of young coaches who have no playcalling experience as "perhaps he'll be better" but that is the same bucket they just went to with Caley. (I will tell you right now that if the Texans paired Cowboys OC Klayton Adams and gave him playcalling power with former Falcons OL coach Dwayne Ledford it would immediately become much more of a fit with their assumed identity than what they are currently doing, but I don't get a say here.)

But where this leaves the Texans is pretty easy to see: Their offense isn't a concern, but it's also not a concern for defenses. And they'll get Tank Dell back next year, they should be able to run a pretty impressive wideout depth chart out there if no one is hurt. Based on how complimentary Caserio was of Dalton Schultz I'd guess they're going to keeping rocking with him as a steady presence even if nothing there was exciting. So then you do, what? Add a different veteran back ahead of Woody Marks? Bring back Ed Ingram? Sign Cade Mays or someone of that ilk to replace Jake Andrews?

It's realistically all about Dell returning to 2023 form or some of the other rookies from this year stepping up to tilt the offense into something that can win with mentality rather than scheme or details. They need more talent overall on that side of the ball. Maybe there's a new Shaq Mason trade out there for Caserio. Maybe you get a rejuvenated Breece Hall.

But rarely do you hit an outlier level offense without either superlative quarterback play or superlative schematic wins from your playcaller. I don't think you can necessarily rule out either Stroud or Caley taking major steps in 2026 – I've gotten a little more open to the idea that older quarterbacks can take leaps as I've done this – but I also think if the conceit of the offense from the get go is that one of those things has to happen, you certainly can't say it feels like a likely improvement. The Seahawks were the only team over 5.0% DVOA on offense this year that didn't have a superstar quarterback, an established floor of other superstar talent (Lions), or an objectively good play caller we all knew about heading into the season. And now Klint Kubiak is fending off head coaching requests left and right.

I can't tell you that the Texans necessarily are refusing to make upgrades there – there's no superstar quarterback free agent market, and you don't get to shop the top-end playcaller market without some breaks if your head coach is a defensive guy. That is the way things go. This is the box the team is built in.

But if you aren't willing to try to lure a more established play caller, and the sound of things at this point is that the team has no problem, well, it's also going to be hard to ever imagine this offense being a problem in 2026. And the thought I've had rattling around in my head for the last two years that I've wanted to ignore is simply: DeMeco Ryans wants to win every game 20-17 and this team is built around that idea.