NFL Predictions 2024

So outside of last year, when I sequestered myself into “raising a newborn,” I have been making some version of this post every year of the last five. My real opinion is that any prediction about the NFL has a shelf life of about a month at most. There is always something changing about every team, and there’s always a key player growing, declining, or getting hurt.

So I’ve studied the numbers, I’ve dived the interviews, I watched what I’ve watched. These are opinions I come to, but they aren’t going to be deep-held. That’s just the way of the NFL. There will always be too much to fully understand it, no matter how many hours of study you put in, and I have come to terms with the fact that I can’t and won’t be able to right myself on more than a misinterpretation a day. So there are my caveats. Let’s begin.

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots

I’ve got Buffalo winning because: I’m a little shaky on how much I should trust Anthony Weaver, defensive coordinator. I watched it happen in front of my eyes in 2020 and it was not good. Romeo Crennel was also kind of his supervisor for most of the year, though? I like the Dolphins and Jets as potential playoff teams, but I’ll give the Jets the tiebreak on defensive coaching and talent I trust a little more. The Dolphins and Jets happen to not employ Josh Allen, which is a problem for them both. I think the Bills can scrap together enough on defense and play enough keep-away with a more run-focused attack to make this the most Sean McDermottized team yet.

I’ve got the Patriots in last because: Well, they removed a lot of the upside case by putting Drake Maye on the bench. The offensive line is awful. Maybe there’s a Nico Collins-kinda leap to be found on a young receiver here, but we may not get to see it with Jacoby Brissett. Then the vibes of Christian Barmore’s future being up in the air and trading away Matt Judon are strongly shouting “consolidation year” at me. I feel like I’m higher on this team than most, but I can’t make a surprise playoff team out of these elements.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

I’ve got Baltimore winning because: Every year that Lamar Jackson has been a full-time starter, the Ravens have finished first or second in the division and won at least 11 games. (He is, unbelievably, 58-19 as a starter in the regular season.) The one year they didn’t get there, 2020, was the year the Steelers started 11-0 for reasons bordering on the absurd. I don’t think it’s impossible that Lamar gets hurt, and I don’t think the Ravens are bulletproof. But I definitely see them as the easy stock investment on paper in a division that remains a bloodbath. I’m putting the Bengals ahead of the Browns because I have no idea what to believe in with Deshaun Watson’s health status at the moment, but really any of these other three teams (or all of them) could be playoff teams without me batting an eye.

I’ve got the Steelers in last because: I think that Arthur Smith and this offense are a good fit in so much as he’s spent the last three years junkballing and this offense is not really built to do anything but junkball. But as I mentioned in the fantasy football bit I did last week, he and Russell Wilson are two agents of chaos. I’m not predicting a full-on regression anywhere, but I think in a division with this much firepower, the one that aims to win every game 19-17 is going to be overly dependent on winning close games to be competitive. Or, you know, exactly what the Steelers have done ever since Roethlisberger hit washed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the division! But if you’re asking me to pick a team I think is the shakiest here, it’s gotta be the Steelers.

AFC South

Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans

I’ve got the Texans winning because: (It is still so weird to write about this team optimistically after seven years of Bill O’Brien malaise and two years wandering the goddamn desert.) I believe in the young defensive talent to take a major step forward. I believe C.J. Stroud and the five-headed monster (his words) will be one of the best offenses in the NFL. I do not believe in Bobby Slowik to stop running the ball, nor do I believe in the offensive line to make major improvements in that area. But they may be good enough that a) they can run out of 11-personnel anyway because everyone is terrified of them throwing and b) that it doesn’t really matter. I think the Jaguars are almost as good on core talent as the Texans, but they lack the depth pieces and have some major holes. I’m projecting an Anthony Richardson season that’s kind of all over the place, good at times, awful at others.

I’ve got the Titans in last because: I don’t think Will Levis showed me anything last year to make me elevate him from curious oddity to franchise quarterback. I still have major concerns about their offensive line. I don’t love their middle linebacker situation even with Ernest Jones. But I do think they’ve got an interesting collection of talent and one of the best chances of making the playoffs of any of the fourth-place teams this year. I like that they spent big and I like that they’re taking advantage of the trade market. I think it’s worth giving Levis a shot. Just, you know, it’s suddenly a secretly tough division and they have real downside scenarios on almost every non-defensive line level of the roster.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers

I’ve got the Chiefs winning because: They improved their offensive upside scenarios from last year and employ Patrick Mahomes. Don’t really think we need to linger on this one too long. Given how bad the rest of this division could be, I think the Chiefs are the safest bet to win 12+ games this season.

I’ve got the Chargers in last because: I think the talent around Justin Herbert is that bad. They’ll have a good offensive line and should run the ball just fine, but we’re talking about a wideout room that DJ Chark and Quentin Johnston made. The defense is stars-and-scrubs to the extreme. It’s literally incredible to me that Tom Telesco did the job that he did and wound up not even having to sit out a year before getting to waltz back in to running the Raiders personnel. I flip back-and-forth on the last three teams depending on the day, the Raiders I think should finish second. They have a decent enough offensive infrastructure around Gardner Minshew, and they easily have the best defense of the other three teams. I don’t love what Sean Payton’s wrecking ball has wrought on that side of the ball. But I distrust the Luke Getsy/Gardner Minshew pairing so much that I’m gonna say I believe in Payton to scam his way to more points even with a rookie quarterback.

It’s four repeat division champions and I feel terrible about it — but I also don’t know which of these teams I should feel bad about. On to the NFC.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Washington
New York Giants

I’ve got the Eagles winning because: I understand in a vacuum that the Eagles overperformed their numbers last year and many regard them as a threat to regress … but I just can’t get there. They intentionally used Matt Patricia as a defensive playcaller last year, which is as close to tanking as you can actually get. I admit there are real issues in their secondary, but this is a bet on the offensive talent and the overall continuity that the Eagles have shown over the past 20 years. It’s also a bet against the Cowboys, and I’m not sure that between their injuries, the new defensive coordinator, and their defections on offense I see them as a premium side this year. It might only take 10 wins to take this division.

I’ve got the Giants in last because: I think Malik Nabers is really, really good and don’t see a single other place on the roster where they have a star. The offensive line was abysmal last year. I know that Brian Daboll could go on a heater, but I have a hard time seeing the upside for them doing more than getting to .500 with Daniel Jones. The Commies could similarly be a disaster. That defense might be the league’s worst, especially the back seven. But I think there’s at least some chance that Jayden Daniels hits the ground running while Dan Quinn elevates the defense up from last to like 25th. Looking for upside scenarios on the Giants is … rough.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings

I’ve got the Packers winning because: We need fresh blood! Both Lions-Packers games are going to be dogfights. While I don’t think this is as simple as “Jordan Love is better than Jared Goff,” I also don’t know how much to believe in Aaron Glenn’s defenses given how much they have historically lagged behind the offenses in this rebuild. The rookie/young cornerback factor with Ennis Rakestraw, Terrion Arnold, and Brian Branch is huge. I find myself trusting Green Bay’s coverage players a little more. But this feels like a two-team race at the top, and I’m gonna say the Packers get a real boost from a different defensive mind after years of Joe Barry.

I’ve got the Vikings in last because: While the Sam Darnold QB1 experience should be novel and interesting in a new setting with a real offensive mind, I don’t really believe he’s going to be better than average in his most optimistic scenarios. They have real problems in the secondary and look primed to run a boom-bust defense all season. T.J. Hockenson being out lets defenses focus a little more on Justin Jefferson. I think the Bears might be a sneaky potential playoff team in Caleb Williams’ rookie year. It really depends on how he deals with pressure behind a leaky offensive line and if that defense can find some better pass rush, but it’s squarely in the range of outcomes for me.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints

I’ve got the Falcons winning because: They seem to really, really, give a shit about it. That’s enough in this division! I liked the Raheem Morris hire, I like Zac Robinson as a potential offensive mind fit. I don’t love what the Michael Penix pick did to Kirk Cousins but I think from a 30,000-foot view it makes it much harder for the Falcons to run into bad quarterback play this year. I also think they were clearly held back by Arthur Smith in some areas. Will the defense play? No idea, but that’s what Raheem is supposed to take care of and the urgency they showed in getting Justin Simmons and Matt Judon has me optimistic that they will keep scrapping. I’m a little nervous about the idea that Dave Canales is actually good at this, and Liam Coen is not Canales, and that makes me worried about the Tampa Bay offense.

I’ve got the Saints in last because: Vibes? The defense has been slowly falling apart and is frankly super-old at most positions. The offensive line is potentially disastrous, with Trevor Penning incapable of finding a way to get benched in spite of looking awful every time he steps on the field. I do think Klint Kubiak is an interesting hire but his first dip in Minnesota wasn’t exactly revolutionary and other than Chris Olave I think they might need revolutionary to be good. I feel better about having Ejiro Evero as my DC for third place than I do about having Joe Woods there, feel better about Canales than Kubiak, and on talent if not production, Bryce Young should at least be able to play a Derek Carr-type role.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals

I’ve got the 49ers winning because: It was a fun August pretending they would fall apart and Brandon Aiyuk would get traded but it’s now time for this team to do what they do best: be a remorseless offensive juggernaut that occasionally settles for too many field goals while gradually stepping down at defensive coordinator enough for it to matter in the playoffs. I could see Seattle and Los Angeles as potential playoff teams, but I’m worried about the Rams finding enough key defensive contributions from the youth movement and Seattle is probably a year away from fielding the exact defensive group it needs for Mike Macdonald to start being more than feisty.

I’ve got the Cardinals in last because: Look at this defense.

Find me the good players here. Find me the star power. I like Budda Baker, yes, but c’mon. And this is with a defensive-minded head coach in Jonathan Gannon that has tended to underperform his talent as a coordinator. I have a strong fraud gut lean on the Cardinals so I try to let people talk me out of that often, and I can see the offense coming together in a way that is genuinely exciting. But. This depth chart, c’mon.

TEAM MOST LIKELY TO BEAT ITS FTN ALMANAC 2024 PROJECTION: Atlanta Falcons (7.6 wins)

I’m not privy to the latest run of the numbers that will come out on Wednesday, but I think they’re in a prime position to challenge for the NFC South as stated above and — even if they don’t — I think more of this team’s floor scenarios fall around eight wins than not.

TEAM MOST LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF ITS FTN ALMANAC 2024 PROJECTION: New England Patriots (7.1 wins)

I think everything about this team is trending in the wrong direction and am willing to disregard the third-ranked defense projection without Belichick, Barmore, and Judon. I don’t think Jerod Mayo will be terrible at this or anything, I just think it’s a tough roster.

PLAYER MOST LIKELY TO BEAT HIS KUBIAK PROJECTION: James Cook, BUF (206/924/4 and 43/340/2 in book)

While I like Ray Davis, I think this scenario sets up with Cook taking a bigger snap share and more carries than this. I’m expecting something closer to 250 carries and 60 catches. The touchdowns will always be iffy with Josh Allen also in the backfield, though, so this isn’t exactly a “pound him in drafts” choice.

PLAYER MOST LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF HIS KUBIAK PROJECTION: Pat Freiermuth, PIT (53/551/4 in book)

Arthur Smith is already looking for ways to Pitts another tight end.

SUPER BOWL LIX WINNER AND LOSER: Kansas City Chiefs over Green Bay Packers

I just won’t pick against Mahomes until he loses again, and I will probably be in disbelief when he loses again even though football is a pretty random game.

WITH THE FIRST PICK IN THE 2025 NFL DRAFT, [TEAM] SELECTS [PLAYER]: The Washington Commanders trade the pick to the New York Giants for a haul, and the Giants select Carson Beck.

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