AFC Fantasy Check-In: Preseason

This series of posts (AFC today, NFC coming soon (TM))) is more about player role expansion than roster cuts. Winning a job on the roster is, obviously, great for one’s value in fantasy football. But there are going to be kick returners kept who didn’t necessarily do anything worthy of fantasy discussion that I am not going to talk about.

Mainly I want to focus on the fringes here — you know to draft Josh Allen and Ceedee Lamb. This is about the totem pole underneath the stars.

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AFC East

Bills

Ray Davis is an interesting depth piece — by all accounts the Bills want to run the football, and James Cook doesn’t exactly fit the physical specifications (read: 190 pounds) of a three-down bell cow back. The unexciting (read: not a rookie) Ty Johnson also sat out the finale with Davis, implying that the Bills believe there is a real edge to keeping him on the field over Davis in some areas. I like Davis’ skill set and see him as worth monitoring, but I don’t think he’s won a clear-cut RB2 role yet. … Keon Coleman feels like a late riser, with an Underdog ADP rising into the high 70s as he essentially has played as a starter from the get-go in preseason/camp. I don’t see a huge difference between him and Brian Thomas Jr. at this point in terms of expected role, and you can argue Buffalo’s target competition is weaker. Will Coleman live up to it? Nobody really knows. He’s a rookie wideout. But betting on someone in Josh Allen’s offense feels good, and I’m not necessarily scared by beat reports that he might not be a downfield threat.

Dolphins

You’re essentially ignoring Jeff Wilson now. He’s only a consideration if injury fells De’Von Achane or Raheem Mostert. … Malik Washington, a sixth-round pick, has made enough strides that he’s played with Tua Tagovailoa in some preseason packages. He did play a little in the third preseason game, but he’s speedy enough to be interesting in a world where Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle gets hurt. … Neither Jonnu Smith nor Durham Smythe have enough offensive involvement for them to be exciting fantasy options at the moment.

Jets

Malachi Corley, New York’s third-round pick at wideout, looks well behind the other receivers and has received enough “needs to work on some things” in the Robert Saleh coaching interviews that I’d be worried about him being more than a gadget player in Year One. … Both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis were rested in the third week of the preseason and it’s hard to discern a true backup to Breece Hall, meaning we’re probably looking at a RBBC if anything happens to Hall. … For those of you who are in to the phrase “These people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might … but it might work for us!” Tyler Conklin TE1 season is here for you.

Patriots

The late-breaking news Monday was Patriots HC Jerod Mayo telling a radio show that Drake Maye had outplayed Jacoby Brissett for the QB1 duties. I don’t think that necessarily gets me excited to draft Drake Maye in any real format, regardless of the fact that Brissett may still start, but for those of you in superflex leagues that want to bet on Maye outperforming his situation, put it on the radar. … We’ve got a clear-cut pecking order at running back with Antonio Gibson behind Rhamondre Stevenson — I kind of think people are too down on Stevenson after last season, and he did get a contract extension worthy of a good running back. Money talks. But Gibson could get enough receiving snaps to limit Stevenson’s upside. … I don’t like any of New England’s receivers enough that I’d want to bet on them in fantasy, Ja’Lynn Polk’s ADP has risen enough that I think he’s not likely to be worth the gamble. DeMario Douglas could work in pure PPR leagues that start a lot of players. Hunter Henry might turn into a worthwhile TE1 if the offense doesn’t get totally anchored by its offensive line, but the fact that the offensive line is so bad also means he’ll probably be forced to block more. I want to believe in this team as slept on in the same way that the Texans were in 2023, but the more research I put into this the less I believe that.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens basically rested their entire “trusted” skill position unit all of preseason. Justice Hill should be the main Derrick Henry backup until Keaton Mitchell is recovered from his ACL repair. 2024 fourth-rounder Devontez Walker is on the waiver wire watch list with some decent performances but no guarantee he makes the team. I’m actually a little surprised at how low Zay Flowers’ ADP is — he’s one of two Ravens receivers we agree can be rostered, Mark Andrews has been rested often after getting into a car crash in training camp — and he’s WR26 on Underdog and lower in standard leagues? Interesting.

Cincinnati Bengals

Zack Moss didn’t play in the preseason at all — the Bengals played starters in Week 1 but he rested with an illness designation. Chase Brown has the juice here, though I think the Bengals would tell you they want a RBBC. I am not entirely sure which of these two will become more playable in-season, I’m a little worried it might be neither of them if Moss takes goal-line duties. … Andrei Iosivas looks to have complete control of the third receiver role heading into the season and that’s worth a dart throw. Tyler Boyd commanded 82-98 targets in each of the last three seasons of the Burrow/Chase/Higgins Bengals and was fantasy-useful fairly often. Jermaine Burton played well in the preseason, but often with the backups and apparently will be brought along slowly … Mike Gesicki looks to be the No. 1 tight end but probably will be more annoying than useful for fantasy leagues.

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson missing the entire preseason would worry me if I were a Browns fan. While he definitely has the best season on record of the Weak QB2s, I don’t know if I can even believe he’s mentally the same player until I see it on the field. … Nick Chubb’s PUP status (out through Week 4) puts Jerome Ford in as the main running back for now. Pierre Strong had been running ahead of D’Onta Foreman as the RB3, and Foreman was let go at last cuts so I feel confident in believing he’s the current No. 2 even if Foreman gets brought back. I’m fading every Browns receiver except Amari Cooper until I see the lines, and it looks like I’m not alone in this stance. Even David Njoku has hovered closer to outside the top 100 in Underdog ADP as the quarterback uncertainty takes hold of the Browns. Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman are all just dart throws.

Pittsburgh Steelers

I think Mike Tomlin deserves a lot of credit generally speaking, and me saying what I’m about to say is not a shot at his odds of keeping this team over .500 for the millionth straight year. But I don’t want anything to do with anybody on a team coordinated by Arthur Smith and quarterbacked by Russell Wilson in fantasy football. Najee Harris is probably the closest I come to matching ADP now that he’s been given the Jaylen Warren discount, and I don’t mind George Pickens as a WR3 just on the lack of target competition. But I just don’t see anything trustworthy evolving on a week-to-week basis between the two agents of chaos, and if Justin Fields took over, he’d only make things worse for the running backs.

AFC South

Houston Texans

While there have been compelling roster battles in a very talented wideout room, the only real fantasy note here to me has been Dameon Pierce versus the rejuvenated Cam Akers as an RB2 candidate behind the well-rested Joe Mixon. Pierce did not create good empirical results in running the football this preseason, and DeMeco Ryans noted that the line had an impact on those results. Akers, in contrast, produced better and even showed a nifty fourth-down catch in the final week of the preseason. I don’t know if the Texans would consider moving off Pierce without a real return — they didn’t yet — but if they don’t, Akers has made life tougher on players like Jawhar Jordan (now waived/injured) and Dare Ogunbowale by making the roster.

Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs’ high-ankle sprain solved the major problem this team had by making the Alec Pierce - Adonai Mitchell outside receiver battle continue into the regular season with Mitchell getting more slot snaps. I think Mitchell’s odds of producing a fantasy-relevant season instantly are being a little slept on. He’s around for a late-round dart throw in most leagues, and I would favor him to beat out the non-producing Pierce based on what I’ve seen and read. … Evan Hull was a surprising waive, he looked like the probable RB2 to start with Trey Sermon banged up. Tyler Goodson also got some run with the 1s in Week 2 and will likely be the main back for receiving-down snaps. … Jelani Woods will again lose most of his season and no Colts tight end will be more than touchdown-or-bust dart throw.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Other than solidifying Tank Bigsby as the Jaguars RB2 in fantasy, we didn’t see much to move the needle in preseason here. Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk (when healthy), and Gabe Davis are locked in as the main wideouts with Parker Washington at WR4. Evan Engram will be a huge threat for targets if Kirk sits early in the season. I do sometimes wonder if I’m a little too anti-Gabe Davis for my own good in fantasy when he literally does the one thing where he can outscore anyone with one catch, and compare that to how he is essentially going for free now.

Tennessee Titans

When in doubt at running back, I follow the money. I expect Tony Pollard to be the 1A to Tyjae Spears’ 1B, though the real thing fantasy football players should be hoping for is an injury that makes one of them RB2-viable. They both mostly stuck to 1A/1B in the preseason, with both splitting drives. … Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd both played as starters, with a lot of 11-personnel, while DeAndre Hopkins was hurt in training camp and didn’t play in any of the three preseason games. There are things we have to admit we have no real read on and one of them for me this year is “will Hopkins or Ridley wind up with more targets this year?” I could see it going either way. This is actually a pretty well-established depth chart without any surprises, just one with a questionable quarterback and no must-use pieces that doesn’t lend itself well to fantasy football stardom.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Tim Patrick’s surprising release backdoors the Marvin Mims hype into another potential out. I don’t love this receiving group and it sort of reads to me as a very short-game focused offense, so maybe we find a Courtland Sutton PPR scam but otherwise I’m struggling to find big value. … Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams rotated with the starters in Week 2 and read to me like a proper Payton platoon. I think McLaughlin is a sharp fantasy pick with Williams not really delivering much last year and a team that should be motivated to run plenty behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix. … Nix has non-zero rushing upside and while I don’t love him as a prospect his role in a Sean Payton offense is at least fantasy-intriguing as a QB2. The Broncos kept three quarterbacks.

Kansas City Chiefs

The hype is out of control everywhere except for Hollywood Brown now that Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury that could cost him some early season games. Xavier Worthy stretched the field and looked to be well ahead of Skyy Moore for WR3 duties, which with Mahomes as a quarterback has sent his ADP skyrocketing. I like Worthy a lot, but I’m not at “this is a sure-fire Round 4/5 pick” just yet, not with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce still here. … “Carson Steele” won a real battle with Deneric Prince for the RB2 behind Isiah Pacheco, though one imagines Clyde Edwards-Helaire will find his way back into the role after missing a lot of camp with PTSD if he recovers. I’m a minor Prince shareholder and like his game a little more, but I don’t have big leans when we hit this part of the roster and Steele empirically delivered in the preseason.

Las Vegas Raiders

This team depresses me. If they had any kind of plan at quarterback or any kind of offensive game plan beyond Luke Getsy, I’d believe in them. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers is a good receiving room, they have Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer make them an extremely interesting 12-personnel team. I just don’t know that Gardner Minshew and Getsy can combine to get anything done here. And with that said, we look at the running back room. … Zamir White and Alexander Mattison appeared to be used as co-backs in Weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason with the starters. I’m a White believer and think he’s the better back in this committee, but it sure does feel like a committee from the outside.

Los Angeles Chargers

This team also depresses me. If they had any kind of plan at the skill positions I’d believe in them. Instead, Justin Herbert is throwing to Josh Palmer and Ladd McConkey, along with four people you’ll never need to know about. … Herbert did not play the entire preseason, and neither did J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards. Isaiah Spiller’s reign of terror is over, with promising-but-buried Kimani Vidal making the team as RB3. … Imagine if the last thing I made you read in a huge piece was a debate over Quentin Johnston’s growing role. That would be cruel. Too cruel even for me.

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