A Winter Of Stroud's Content, Pt. III: The Ask

The NFL is always unfair to its young quarterbacks in some major way. Last year, CJ Stroud was asked to deal with the world’s dumbest offensive line stunt pickups. The sort of stuff that would be inexcusable in any major college program, let alone in the NFL. 

The offensive line is not fixed. But it is no longer creating worst in the league-level output. The ask now is a little easier and it’s also not. Instead of surviving the game to win the division in what felt like a lost season as receivers kept breaking, the ask is now: Every single positive thing the offense does is on your shoulders and you need to bring this championship-level defense on a real run.

The run game against the Raiders — one hilarious fourth-quarter broken tackle from Nick Chubb aside — was terrible. The offensive line from a penalty perspective had a game that was a 2024 reversion, creating down-and-distance situations that were impossible to escape. For whatever reason, Nick Caley decided that Christian Kirk was good again(?) after it felt like all parties agreed to a mothballing around midseason. The Texans were two bad defensive pass interference penalties from losing that game. By all means, they should have. 

And Stroud stunk in the first half. That’s not something that always happens, but it was noticeable against the Raiders. It was noticeable against the Colts in his return from the concussion. This week’s opponent, the Chargers, had a pretty memorable playoff game against the Texans last year. Stroud did not play well in the first half of that one, either. So they made me look up the splits:

C.J. Stroud 1H, 2025: 11.2% DVOA, 41% success rate
C.J. Stroud 2H, 2025: 10.2% DVOA, 49% success rate

Welp, killed that narrative dead. One of those things that feels like an issue in your head because you can create it. But I always enjoy the good "ah-what-if-we-could-fix-this-one-thing-never-mind" stat lookup.

Justin Herbert, the man who had it all on his plate in said last year’s playoff game, is having another season in the Stroud Genre Of Young Quarterbacks. The passing game weapons are plentiful if imperfect, but the offensive line loses a tackle every week. They have — I am not making this up — played Bobby Hart in several NFL games this year. Hart was a snarky ball-knower punchline in the late 2010s. Seeing him protecting the prime of one of the best quarterbacks in the league is like seeing Carlos Mencia reappear hosting the Emmys. 

And yet, if you watch Herbert against the Texas Tech Cowboys last week, he rained fire despite a catastrophically high pressure rate. 

I am sure things will look different against the Texans this week, since they play defense like they’ve actually met in person. But Herbert's good enough that I don’t think Stroud and Caley can get away with a passing game playing like they just rolled out of bed. The Chargers have also been putting out some good defensive tape since trading for Odafe Oweh. Houston’s offensive line will either be starting Blake Fisher or an casted Aireontae Ersery after he had surgery early this week — neither option is appealing. 

Holding together the psyche of an entire fanbase isn’t fair when you and Nico Collins are the only offensive players I can conclusively call good on a weekly basis. But that remains the ask for Stroud. The Texans in trying to finish out this comeback from 0-3 to whatever the playoffs could hold can’t afford loser offensive halves anymore. The bad teams are off the schedule and — should it come to pass — Philip Rivers in Week 18 fighting for a playoff spot is a terrifying game. Terrifying for the defense after he spent Monday night balling against the 49ers. Terrifying for me looking into the void after absorbing a year’s worth of 98 percent playoff odds talk in the span of two weeks. 

Like the cable of the world’s first transatlantic telegraph, the ask here while surrounded in a situation and odds that would crush many is to simply be good anyway. From the jump, preferably. Thanks.