2025 NFL Predictions

My caveat to any post like this is simply: I do not believe I have the best handle on anything, and I do believe I will be wrong sometimes. Over the years I've tended to be someone who likes to predict the novel thing to happen, and I try to push back on that mentally now.

For instance, a lot of my peers are picking the Ravens to win the Super Bowl and ... I cannot tell you I believe that won't happen! But also I think a lot of that is guided by two ideas. One of those ideas is that the best team will always win – I think we know that this isn't true. Another is that it is "their turn," so to speak. I believe the Ravens have a good chance to win the Super Bowl, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did. But I'm also not going to pick them to do so until I see the lemon booty leave their bodies in the playoffs.

Anyway, thoughts on every division ahead:

AFC East
Bills
Patriots
Dolphins
Jets

The Bills will win the division because: I mean look at it. I don't think I need to spend a ton of time defending this pick. The best non-Buffalo offense is anchored to Tua Tagovailoa's health and I'd say the best unit on any of those other three teams is the Jets defense coming off a down year.

The competition: The Patriots did a good job microwaving their defense from last year, I like Mike Vrabel, and I think Drake Maye did some good things in his rookie year. I could see them fighting for a wild card berth. But this feels more like the year they take an establishing step to me while we figure out what the offensive line room and wideout room eventually become.

The vibes off Miami are awful, but we said the same thing about the Eagles heading into last year. The more pressing issue to me is that the only cornerback the Dolphins have that anybody has heard of is "Storm Duck" and that's because he's named "Storm Duck." The entire DB room is woeful and I don't think Minkah Fitzpatrick off a down year is enough to fix that. They have an offensive line that I'd say is on par with the Texans. Nice defensive line and nice offensive playcalling can only get you so far.

Are the Jets hopeless?: I don't think so, I think they'll be an annoying team to play against this year. But between Justin Fields' quarterback play and "No. 2 receiver Josh Reynolds" I struggle to see a consistent enough passing game to get them beyond scrappy.

AFC North
Ravens
Steelers
Bengals
Browns

The Ravens will win this division because: They're the best team in the NFL on paper before the season begins.

The competition: I really don't like picking the Bengals to make the playoffs – in fact it makes me sick to my stomach – so I didn't. Someone has to represent the AFC, this goes seven-deep, and Joe Burrow is coming off an other-worldly season. I definitely think they're in contention for a playoff spot. I get it. But Al Golden coordinating a defense that is relying heavily on rookies and youngsters to take a step forward doesn't fill me with confidence. Then we need to talk about the odds of regression from last year's best: I don't think the Bengals should count on getting the seasons they got last year from Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson. They certainly could get seasons like that again from all four of them. I just wouldn't count on all of it.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have found a way to make Aaron Rodgers boring. Mike Tomlin wins 10 games in his sleep. Don't take this as an endorsement of their passing game, but I have more trust in them finding the 10-15 good plays of Rodgers they'll need to win than the Bengals finding 10-15 defensive plays at key moments to make the playoffs.

Are the Browns hopeless?: Yes. I'm not saying there'll be no reason to watch, and I think reuniting Kevin Stefanski and Joe Flacco will be broadly "fun." But I don't see a scenario in which this team contends for anything.

AFC South
Texans
Jaguars
Colts
Titans

The Texans will win this division because: I can't believe I'm as high on the Texans as I am this year, but intently watching last season made me believe the offensive problems were more schematic than based on talent. The defense has a chance to be the best in the NFL and shouldn't fall outside the top five without devastating injuries. I (looks around nervously) think there's a small-but-real chance they're an AFC contender this year.

The competition: Many have fallen prey to the Jaguars Optimism Hour in the past. This year, though...

They were surprisingly picked to win the AFC South in FTN Almanac's projections, some of that is because of defensive regression, and some of that is because the system is big on the underlying problems of last season being gone. I think if you stack the Jaguars' top-tier talent up – Lawrence, Thomas, Hunter, Hines-Allen, Walker – they can stand with any team in the AFC. It's depth-of-talent that's the real issue.

While I didn't pick the Colts to finish last, and I can squint and see how a coach who turned Gardner Minshew into a near-playoff quarterback could do some decent things with Daniel Jones, I don't consider them a real contender for a playoff spot. I don't think the non-Josh Downs talent in their receiving corps is as good as it's cracked up to be, and believe this will become Tyler Warren's show for that reason. I don't really believe in Lou Anarumo as a defensive savior and that unit lacks difference makers.

Are the Titans hopeless?: I don't know if I'd go quite that far. But I do think most of the Titans optimism (better line play with Dan Moore, Cam Ward is an amazing prospect when most media draftniks had him graded closer to "in the top 10" than "No. 1 overall," Brian Callahan is Actually OK At Playcalling) hinges on the idea that life would be more fun if some cool things happened here. I don't believe in Brian Callahan being a good NFL head coach.

AFC West
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Chargers

The Chiefs will win this division because: They employ Patrick Mahomes.

The competition: I'm expecting a mild step back from Bo Nix because I thought he was out over his skis last year statistically, but the roster is too good top-to-bottom for me to worry about the Broncos not making the playoffs. They have some upside cases where they can take the division, but I'm not 100 percent sold on it all coming together well.

I definitely want to believe in the Raiders. But then I look at their defensive roster, which includes starting "Kyu Blu Kelly" and might give real snaps to Devin White and Jamal Adams(!!) at linebacker. The offense should be a lot of fun, at least, but I think they need to spend next offseason collecting every bit of defensive talent that gets to free agency.

Are the Chargers hopeless?: No, they're just in a tough division. I have trouble finding a way to make their defense go from top-10 unit to top-five unit. I'm unsure about the wideout room and the offensive line. I could see this team finishing anywhere from 2-4 in the division without any real surprise, but someone has to go down and everyone in this division is a good coach so there's no gimme games.

NFC East
Eagles
Commanders
Cowboys
Giants

The Eagles will win this division because: Jalen Carter won't spit on somebody every game, the defensive talent will let them keep things close, and Saquon Barkley will have a great-if-not-transcendent campaign behind a good offensive line.

The competition: I don't truly think the Commanders are ready to take a step up, but I think they'll be able to stay level with last year in a way that's semi-disappointing. Texans-esque, if you will. Or Jayden Daniels could just go nuclear. Either way I feel good about them being in the playoffs.

The Cowboys punted on the season when they traded Micah Parsons but at least the offense should be fun. OK, fun until Dak Prescott's yearly injury.

Are the Giants hopeless?: I kind of think not, I'm annoyed at how much I liked how Jaxson Dart looked in the preseason. But I don't think they have enough to make the playoffs unless he seizes control of the offense in the first month of the season and can put up some high-ceiling games.

NFC North
Vikings
Packers
Lions
Bears

The Vikings will win this division because: This is probably my most controversial pick against consensus, but I can't be budged off my prior. They upgraded every area of the roster outside of letting Cam Bynum walk – perhaps those upgrades won't work, free agency isn't a guarantee of anything. But they still look a lot better on paper than they did last year. When they won 14 games with Sam Darnold at quarterback.

I do think J.J. McCarthy can fail, but I think the odds of him being unplayable are low. And if you accept that premise, it's hard to believe this offense can't crush in 2025. I loved the under-the-radar Jordan Mason pick-up. I think they can actually run the ball now. And once they get Jordan Addison back I think you can stack their skill-position talent favorably against most NFL teams.

Brian Flores and Kevin O'Connell deserve the benefit of the doubt on their sides of the ball. Is the secondary flawless? No. Will they lose games to injury because they have so many older players? Probably. Do I wish I knew for sure that Christian Darrisaw was ready to be full go? I do.

But ... I just think this team is being slept on again.

The competition: The Packers were already good and then traded for Micah Parsons. I think the things that Matt LaFleur does schematically are worthy of praise. But between the late-game management being a little too conservative and Jordan Love not exactly becoming a superstar, I'm having problems finding the ceiling lifters for this team. I think it's more likely they'll be good all-around and not good enough when it matters.

The Lions did absolutely nothing wrong. They just play with two of my favorite teams in the conference and are trying to deal with the surprise Frank Ragnow retirement and a defense that seems destined to lose someone to injury weekly.

Are the Bears hopeless?: You could tell me the Bears finished in any position in the NFC North and I'd believe you. It just comes down to what Caleb Williams actually is. I think he's going to be more inconsistent than anything because, well, I watched him play last year. And the camp reports were that things continued to be inconsistent.

Without a passing game that I think is going to be great, I'm reticent to hitch my wagon to any other area of the Bears. D'Andre Swift as a lead back? Montez Sweat as a main EDGE? I think this plays out as a step forward year and then we can talk about how good they'll be for real in 2026.

NFC South
Buccaneers
Falcons
Panthers
Saints

The Buccaneers will win this division because: I have faith in the Falcons to lose it.

More seriously: Even with the Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs injuries, Tampa just has more overall talent up-and-down the roster than any of the other teams in the division. I don't love the pass rush and you can pick on some areas of the defense, but as long as Josh Grizzard doesn't shatter the offense into a million pieces somehow it's the best unit in the division.

The competition: I'd toy more seriously with the Falcons to win the division if they didn't just lose Kaleb McGary for the season. But they invested almost nothing on offense and are reliant on a Michael Penix Jr. to be an instant top-15 quarterback to improve things. And ... I'm sorry. Are we sure Jeff Ulbrich is good at anything but letting his kid make prank calls? He spent most of his career working under Saleh and that unit immediately went in the tank when he took over. The 2020 Falcons were absolutely horrific as a pass defense. I'm sure he's a great leader of men type coach, but I'm not sold that he's the guy to take a bunch of young pieces and make them great.

I don't completely buy the Bryce Young comeback in the sense that I don't think he'll ever be a star quarterback, but I think he could be a top-20 player at the position if it all goes right. This defense is a year away from being a year away and I think the Adam Thielen trade will be sneaky impactful in a bad way for the offense.

Are the Saints hopeless?: Oh yeah. Nobody drafts Tyler Shough in the second round with the idea of hope. This is the worst quarterback situation in the NFL and the once-great core of the late 2010s Saints has degraded in quality like overworld weapons in Tears of the Kingdom.

NFC West
Cardinals
Rams
49ers
Seahawks

The Cardinals will win this division because: I'm being dragged kicking and screaming here because I just don't like Jonathan Gannon, but I also don't love any of the other teams in this division. They spent a lot of money on this defense and they should be capable of more than just interesting Budda Baker box schemes – FTN Almanac has them as a a top-10 defense. I don't love Kyler Murray nor this offensive line, but if Matthew Stafford's back is legitimately an issue all season I can squint and see Murray as the most talented quarterback in the division. Marvin Harrison Jr. should be in a better situation this year.

The competition: If Stafford plays 17 healthy games the Rams are the champions of this division. But something tells me that's not how this will play out.

I keep seeing a lot of media friends be excited about the 49ers coming back to the table this year, but I just don't see it. George Kittle enters his age-32 season and will never have to work as hard as he has to this year – great for fantasy, rough for real life results – in this offense. Christian McCaffrey didn't look right last year and I'm concerned he's a walking soft tissue nightmare. Brandon Aiyuk probably won't be Brandon Aiyuk until 2026. Trent Williams is another year older and the rest of this offensive line is largely unimproved. The defense is Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and nine guys I don't really trust. If they win this division, Brock Purdy deserves a bigger contract than the one he just got.

Are the Seahawks hopeless?: I don't think so, but I also don't see much in the way of carrying, star-level talent on either side of the ball. They'll keep games close with Mike Macdonald's defense. I have a hard time believing they're getting more out of Sam Darnold than the Vikings did last year, and we're talking about a receiver room where fifth-round rookie Tory Horton just waltzes into as an easy starter. I see them more as a feisty six-to-seven win team than a team truly scavenging the depths, but I have a hard time finding 10 or 11 wins on their schedule when the best players I see are Devon Witherspoon and Jaxson Smith-Njigba.